If all stays the same (ceteris paribus). The flowering went well (it stayed dry and so flowering took place over a short period of time). Ripening should take place over a short period too. Good for quality. There was some coulure on the Merlot due to the very cold nights experienced during the flowering (beginning of June). This just serves to reduce the yield. Cabernet Franc (see photo below) and Sauvignon flowering was exceptional.
Counting 115 days from mid-flowering, brings us to end September.
The earlier the better in Bordeaux as there is the chance that the harvest will take place in warm, sunny conditions. The later the more risk there is of Autumn storms and rain.
So far some regions have suffered badly from hail damage – Côtes de Beaune (Burgundy), Languedoc Roussillon, Cognac and the Medoc (above the Haut Medoc). This will badly effect yield for this year and next as the wood is damaged (and next year’s buds).
Now there are many other boxes to be ticked before the harvest before we know if 2014 is going to be a great vintage. The first one (flowering) is ticked. Now we need a dry and long, hot summer. The water table is already full due to the very high level of rainfall during the Spring. Hope Paul Weller is listening.